Given the tragic LA and Maui wildfires, fire danger is naturally on everyone’s mind. In its zeal to promote more housing California has passed numerous laws taking away local control over housing development decisions irrespective of fire danger. Local jurisdictions like Mill Valley must comply with new state building mandates that ignore fire risk.

Working with Google researchers, the City of Mill Valley participated in a groundbreaking simulation of a full evacuation of all greater city and county families living west of Highway 101. Actual street configurations and garage locations were used. This work was published in a peer reviewed academic journal in July, 2023. 

There is a sobering impact in understanding specific evacuation times, which vary greatly by neighborhood. Although we have indisputable data for Mill Valley, this is an issue for all communities in California with housing in high fire zones and challenging evacuation routes. 

Wildfire is unpredictable, and no amount of planning can mitigate every scenario. The simulation predicts that most families will be in their cars within an hour of the start of a massive event. At the two-hour mark, the simulation predicts that 78% of all passengers in the 17,000 car greater Mill Valley simulation will reach a safer location due to much better traffic planning. This is a significant improvement from the baseline. However, three neighborhoods still achieve a much slower result. 

1500 cars of the 3300 cars with occupants in these combined neighborhoods are not expected to reach a safer area within two hours. These neighborhoods represent only 20% of the total population, but 42% of the remaining evacuating cars that are at higher risk. These neighborhoods have greater density of cars, challenging road conditions, and are farther up in the canyons, in high fire hazard severity zones. 

While existing conditions are difficult to change, common sense would suggest that these three areas are the LAST place to add additional housing, making things worse. Irrespective of the fire danger conditions present, new state law now allows up to four units on any single-family zoned lot, originally zoned and built for one unit only. Each new unit built adds more lives and cars attempting a possibly life-threatening exit from the neighborhoods least able to cope with evacuation. No city in California can stop any proposed development in high fire areas for fire safety considerations due to the state mandates. 

Enough is enough. Now is the time to demand that ALL California jurisdictions be given greater discretion over building in high fire zones. The state cannot continue to ignore the consequences of it providing incentives to build in these higher risk areas. It is time for the state to better balance growth with safety.

Please join me in calling on your Board of Supervisors, State Senator, and Assemblymember to advocate for allowing local jurisdictions to override our state mandated building codes regarding development levels in high fire risk zones.  My Assemblymember in Marin, Damon Connolly has recently expressed support for this idea.  

He strongly supports the state better balancing growth with safety and working with us on a proposal that can pass and achieve this goal. Damon shared that he has discussed these issues in the Legislature with colleagues and policy committees, and there is little support for policies that allow local jurisdictions to create their own development rules that are different than the state mandates. I think we can all agree that introducing legislation that does not have a chance of passing will not address this important issue. Damon advised that we need to work together to get broader support across the state. He recommends starting now so that we have a bill ready for next year. I have known Damon for some time and he is a man of his word. 

We can no longer ignore the real-world consequences of promoting housing growth at all costs, ignoring the impacts on the safety of our citizens. 

This is just common sense!